ESPN Insider John Hollinger has a long article on his rating of players in the draft. Probably shouldn't copy the whole article since it is a paid site and don't want to get ClubBlazer in trouble, but will provide a summary
Hollinger’s “Player Efficiency Rating (PER) Projection” - has a very complex formula he uses for projecting who will be all-stars, team stars, starters, role players and busts. His formula has shown to be very accurate in the past, but even he admits he has to adjust his formula for players that deliver even though they didn’t project to have a good PER (i.e. Isaiah Thomas last year picked last).
He not only takes the PER Projection, but also items the PER Projection can’t take into account with defensive plus or minuses; red flags on health and mental (i.e. desire, attitude) and a couple of other subjective calls he doesn’t go into.
Here is a breakdown:
- Anthony Davis (22.23) – only real star of the draft and probably rookie of year player.
- Dion Waiters (14.12) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (13.58) with a rating above 13 for SG/SF is considered very good / potential all-stars as his past 8 players PERs have done well with 5 played in the all-star game. Waiters is projected to be the best small wing (i.e. SG/SF) since Dwayne Wade. Quincy Miller (12.94) despite his poor performance at the combine and some of the workouts due to his body not completely healed from his ACL is still projected to be a top ten player in the draft and will be a great pick in the 20’s once he is recovered from his ACL.
- PGs – Kendall Marshall (13.84), Marquis Teague (13.18), Tony Wroten (12.21) – are top three PGs of the draft, but no real stars and the best value is to pick these players in the lower half of the first round. Marshall is the safe pick, but least upside to improve. Wroten has the most star upside, but can a team harness his talent. Teague is a talented score first PG, but limited on court vision.
- Next top PF/C are Jared Sullinger (16.86), Thomas Robinson (16.86), Draymond Green (14.84), Terrence Jones (14.28), Royce White (14.07), Furkan Aldemir (12.87), John Henson (12.11), Andre Drummond (12.05) and Henry Sims (10.38). Henson and Drummond rate low in PERs, because of their lack of offense, but it is their defense the PER doesn’t take into account. Drummond is projected to be a top defensive player in the draft and that is why he is rated in the top 5 for how valuable he will be to a team looking for a defensive big man.
- Potential busts due to weak college schedule of opponents or not projected to have much upside or a team may pick them too high in the draft and not get the value. Damian Lillard (9.75) best value is mid to late 1st round (ouch-just say “NO” blazers). Andrew Nicolson (8.22), John Jenkins (7.76), Moe Harkless (7.15), and Arnett Moultrie (6.42) if a team picks them in the 1st round will be disappointed. Players like Maalik Wayns (8.02), Hollis Thompson (8.01), Jae Crowder (7.90), Jared Cunningham (7.76), Scott Machado (7.57), Darius Miller (6.65) are good value picks in the 2nd round, but don’t expect them to be starters.
- Projected value – Perry Jones (8.77) at PF is rated low on the PER, but doesn’t say what happens if he is rated at SF. Tyler Zeller (8.23), Fab Melo (7.73), Meyers Leonard (7.02), Festius Ezeli (6.54) are projected in 2nd half of 1st round to early 2nd round.