Projected PER, stars and busts

• Anthony Davis (22.23) – only real star of the draft and probably rookie of year player.
• Dion Waiters (14.12) and Michael Kidd-Gilchrist (13.58) with a rating above 13 for SG/SF is considered very good / potential all-stars as his past 8 players PERs have done well with 5 played in the all-star game. Waiters is projected to be the best small wing (i.e. SG/SF) since Dwayne Wade. Quincy Miller (12.94) despite his poor performance at the combine and some of the workouts due to his body not completely healed from his ACL is still projected to be a top ten player in the draft and will be a great pick in the 20’s once he is recovered from his ACL.
• PGs – Kendall Marshall (13.84), Marquis Teague (13.18), Tony Wroten (12.21) – are top three PGs of the draft, but no real stars and the best value is to pick these players in the lower half of the first round. Marshall is the safe pick, but least upside to improve. Wroten has the most star upside, but can a team harness his talent. Teague is a talented score first PG, but limited on court vision.
• Next top PF/C are Jared Sullinger (16.86), Thomas Robinson (16.86), Draymond Green (14.84), Terrence Jones (14.28), Royce White (14.07), Furkan Aldemir (12.87), John Henson (12.11), Andre Drummond (12.05) and Henry Sims (10.38). Henson and Drummond rate low in PERs, because of their lack of offense, but it is their defense the PER doesn’t take into account. Drummond is projected to be a top defensive player in the draft and that is why he is rated in the top 5 for how valuable he will be to a team looking for a defensive big man.
• Potential busts due to weak college schedule of opponents or not projected to have much upside or a team may pick them too high in the draft and not get the value. Damian Lillard (9.75) best value is mid to late 1st round (ouch-just say “NO” blazers). Andrew Nicolson (8.22), John Jenkins (7.76), Moe Harkless (7.15), and Arnett Moultrie (6.42) if a team picks them in the 1st round will be disappointed. Players like Maalik Wayns (8.02), Hollis Thompson (8.01), Jae Crowder (7.90), Jared Cunningham (7.76), Scott Machado (7.57), Darius Miller (6.65) are good value picks in the 2nd round, but don’t expect them to be starters.
• Projected value – Perry Jones (8.77) at PF is rated low on the PER, but doesn’t say what happens if he is rated at SF. Tyler Zeller (8.23), Fab Melo (7.73), Meyers Leonard (7.02), Festius Ezeli (6.54) are projected in 2nd half of 1st round to early 2nd round.

All-star
1. Anthony Davis

All-star to Team Star
2. Thomas Robinson
3. Michael Kidd-Gilchrist
4. Dion Waiters
5. Andre Drummond

Team Star to Starter
6. Quincy Miller
7. Jared Sullinger
8. Terrence Jones
9. John Henson
10. Royce White

Starter to 6th/7th man
11. Bradley Beal
12. Harrison Barnes
13. Tony Wroten
14. Kendall Marshall
15. Marquis Teague
16. Draymond Green
17. Jeremy Lamb
18. Damian Lillard
19. Austin Rivers
20. Doron Lamb

6th-7th man - rotation
21. Furkan Aldemir
22. Will Barton
23. Tyler Zeller
24. Evan Fournier
25. Tyshawn Taylor
26. Meyers Leonard
27. Terrence Ross
28. Perry Jones
29. Festus Ezeli
30. Fab Melo

Rotation - bench warmer
31. Kostas Sloukas
32. Henry Sims
33. Terrell Stoglin
34. Kostas Papanikolaou
35. Moe Harkless
36. Leon Radosevic
37. JaMychal Green
38. Andrew Nicholson
39. Drew Gordon
40. Garrett Stutz

Bench warmer to not in the league in 3 years
41. Robert Sacre
42. Arnett Moultrie
43. William Buford
44. Jae Crowder
45. Jared Cunningham
46. Jordan Taylor
47. John Jenkins
48. Orlando Johnson
49. Jeffrey Taylor
50. Tomas Satoransky

Not in the league in 3-5 years
51. Quincy Acy
52. Maalik Wayns
53. Tornike Shengelia
54. Scott Machado
55. Mike Scott
56. J'Covan Brown
57. Reggie Hamilton
58. Khris Middleton
59. Tony Mitchell
60. Miles Plumlee

Anthony Davis

• Bradley Beal – Ray Allen type player, 6’8” wingspan, versatile and efficient shooter around the floor, can defend and rebound.
• Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – Will to win is contagious. Defend from athletic PGs to PFs. 7 ft wingspan, 35 inch vertical. Energy player 100% of the time. May not be an all-star but a team star.
• Harrison Barnes – Has size, length and very good athleticism. Outstanding jump-shooter, good ball skills, can drive to the hole, terrific defender. Projected as better pro then in college.
• Jeremy Lamb – 6’11” wingspan, high release which allows him to shoot over shorter SGs, can move without the ball and create his own shot. Projected as better pro than in college.

• Jared Sullinger – he knows how to play his position. 31 inch vertical, 7’1” wingspan. Needs to hit the 20ft shot, struggles against taller players.
• Royce White – PG in a defensive lineman body. Offensive versatility and passing are his strengths. Anxiety disorder will cause team concerns.
• Andre Drummond – a beast, he has every tool you want in a player except shooting. Huge, can run, rebound, block shots and alter shots. A junior Dwight Howard. How bad does he want to improve is the major question. If he is willing to work at it in the gym, he will be a major star in the NBA, if not, just an average center.
• Perry Jones III – great kid who has every tool in a player you want. When he plays well, the sky is the limit with his potential. Bilas recommends taking a chance on him as he will be worth the risk in the lottery. Areas to improve are toughness, leadership and “want to”.
• Meyers Leonard – has every tool you want to be a great center except questions on his toughness. Bilas is not concerned about his toughness. Leonard has a nice shooting touch, can rebound and block shots and should be a terrific NBA player.
• Austin Rivers – very good with the ball, uncanny ability to get past defenders and get into the lane, should do very well in the NBA with it’s rules that protect smaller players. Very good offensive weapon, but still needs to improve his range; needs to improve his ball handling and passing. Some complain about his “cockiness”, but that is because he wants to win and should be a very good NBA player.

Boom or Bust Prospects
By Jonathan_Wasserman
Wed, 06/20/2012 - 10:24pm

One of the most challenging decisions for NBA evaluators is weighing risk versus reward. Projecting ceilings and basements while measuring the likelihood of each is an integral part of the draft evaluation process. Depending on the direction of a team and its current personnel, prospects with towering upside who remain vulnerable to underachieving could be unappealing as a top selection, especially when you consider the value of a high pick. On the other hand, teams looking to roll the dice might want to take a chance on a "Boom or Bust" prospect, with the hopes that their ceiling is reached and a star is born in time. Here's a list of some of the riskiest yet most rewarding prospects in the 2012 NBA draft.

Andre Drummond
Andre DrummondWhile it's not as black and white as Kwame Brown or Dwight Howard, Drummond's projections land at the opposite ends of the spectrum. On one hand, if Drummond develops some go-to moves and revs up that motor, he becomes the immediate focus of a defense's attention. A guy the opposition game-plans for. A double-team requirement. Then again if he fails to develop offensively, he becomes limited to finishing and clean-up duties. Though nice to have, that doesn't justify top 5 value.

Perry Jones
We look at Jones and see incredible potential based on the height of a center and athleticism of a guard. And not only that, but Jones can play the game. He's a good basketball player. The issue is whether or not Jones can strategically use his strengths to exploit the mismatch he presents. He could end up being like no player we've seen. Or he can end up lost between positions, like Anthony Randolph.

Jeremy Lamb
Lamb is the most dynamic perimeter scorer in the field when you consider his ability to create and make shots out to 25 feet. We've seen glimpses of explosiveness attacking the rim off two feet. Plus his midrange game is well refined. But his competitive drive isn't overwhelming, and neither is his frame. Lamb could be vulnerable to getting pushed around by stronger, meaner two-guards, which would restrict him from getting within 15 feet of the rim. On the bright side, 15-25 feet is his area of comfort. On the dark side, more than half of his field goal attempts came from behind the arc, where he shot a disappointing 33%.

Terrence Jones
Few players can match his physical dimensions and skill set. At 6'9, 252 and with a 7'2 wingspan, Jones has the ability to run the floor and create. He's an automatic mismatch problem for opposing teams, due to his ability to face the basket and pull opposing bigmen away from the paint. But questions persist about his motor and focus. His body language is not always the greatest and he's had a few meltdown games in which his mental state appeared to be somewhere between Neptune and Pluto. If he realizes his potential he's a top 10 prospect, but he also has a real bust potential which has his stock somewhere in the mid-first round area.

Meyers Leonard
On paper, the kid's tools could build a skyscraper. He's 7'1 with a developed NBA body. Athletic and talented. But centers are always vulnerable to underachieving due to a drastic transition process playing inside. At the college level, baskets come easy for 7-footers, primarily because their defender is generally 6'10 or smaller. At the pro level, Leonard will be required to body up against stronger, more athletic men his size- keyword: men. Leonard could end up being a top three scoring option, or if he could end up as a backup space-eater- the difference between a steal and a reach.

Royce White
A unique game with enormous talent, White could be mismatch or a misfit. A small forward with point guard instincts and power forward strength, White could take on an array of responsibilities, therefore diminishing the impact of lacking depth, versatility and balance. White could overpower small forwards and beat 4s off the dribble. Or it could work the other way, in which 3s are too quick for him and power forwards are too big.

Quincy Miller
He's got lottery talent to go with a size advantage at the 3 position. However his high school ACL injury prevented him from turning the corner on his defender, forcing him to develop a midrange game in which he now excels at. If he ever gains back his explosiveness, Miller could end up with the full-offensive half court package. If he struggles to separate from NBA defenders, generating points on a consistent basis could be a challenge at the next level.

Tony Wroten
Wroten's athleticism is tailor-made for basketball, and at 6'6, he's the ideal shape and size for a guard. He needs to work on a specific craft, whether it's shooting or playmaking, but this combo of size and athleticism could propel him to another level. Then again we've seen phenomenal athletes out of the job after just a few years.

Kmurph1 wrote:Hey D69, any info about the not so "secret" workout tomorrow?

have you heard of the interest in Waiters?

@JustBlaze52: If Drummond falls to #6 I bet that the Blazers will take him...
@mikerice6: Wanna bet
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@kede23: if the Blazers select Drummond, you're going to say all this to his face right?
@mikerice6: never will have to
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@PDXKass: Drummond or Lillard at 6; who else might we pick?
@mikerice6: forget drummond. Dropping
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@BlazerWookee: I heard drummond lacks motivation?
@mikerice: its a little more than that
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@ranKismet: rivers? Thumb up or down at 11? Would love him and Drummond for #Blazers.
@mikerice6: forget drummond
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@KwameLuvThaKids: If drummond is there at 11, would you take him?
@mikerice6: No
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@jhassler80: If Drummond slips to 11 then is he worth the risk? Don't think he will but...
@mikerice6: he will slip. Even lower
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@mmeewes: you say "yes" when the guy said Drummond. Does that mean you are sailing his ship now?
@mikerice6: no way. Never
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@celticwarrior80: trade #6 pick and one 2nd round to move up to get Andre Drummond is that a little insane???
@mikerice6: dont like him

Kmurph1 wrote:Hey D69, any info about the not so "secret" workout tomorrow?

Khazim wrote:

Kmurph1 wrote:Hey D69, any info about the not so "secret" workout tomorrow?

Was there some kind of workout today? Haven't seen any info...