NBA 2012 Draft - any wish list or predictions

If Drummond is on the board @ #6, we draft him. Why? I doubt he will develop into a HOF level of player. It would take a huge change to his mental game, and a ton of effort. I have concerns how well he will mentally adjust to the long NBA season.

With that said, I believe Drummond is a safer pick @ #6 than most realize. His upside is lower than his hype, but his downside is higher than a bust. He has proven he can play against a high level of competition, sometimes. His first year or two will be rocky and inconsistent, and a possible disappointment to many fans. However, in the long run, I believe he will turn into a serviceable center. He will fill a huge need of the in the paint player next to LMA. Just his rebounding and shot blocking with help the Blazers. Combine this with very few FA center options; he is our pick @ #6.


Lillard on the other hand is a very risky pick. His upside is way lower than his hype. His downside is rock bottom. Lillard’s game has more red flags than a Russian Embassy. And these are flaws showing against weak competition. Lillard will be the biggest bust of this draft class, even with the #11 pick.

Below is video of Lillard’s Combine 3 on 3 drills. He did not embarrass himself; however, these were NOT full pressure contact drills. Besides his poor court vision, one announcer that appears to know his game pointed out two more weaknesses. Lillard is average in the pick and roll game. Also, teams that did defend him well forced him to his right, which lowered his FG to 30%, in the Blue Sky conference. He will be very easy to defend in the NBA.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l-ZJR2aAmaw

Fill the PG roster spots with veteran FAs. I would rather make a trade with Charlotte for Augustin than use a pick on Lillard. Augustin is a serviceable safe PG and a much better option than Lillard.

I can understand Paul's reluctance to make a move that will acquire dead weight. Still, if Portland did have a chance to move for 11 + Matthews for 2 and Thomas it would be disappointing if it was us that turned it down. Though, if the cost was something more like Matthews + #6 for that package, I could definitely see it being harder to swallow.

The more I think about the draft, the more excited I am getting for Lillard. He seems to have a lot of the talents that the Blazers have sorely lacked for some time. The biggest issue of course is whether or not he could make the transition from dropping 25+ on Portland State to dropping 20+ on Westbrook.

I also am becoming much more intrigued by Drummond. For the majority of this draft class, I have been steadfast against the idea of taking him. For every ounce of intrigue, potential, or sparkle, is another ounce of concern. But, so far he has seemed to be a relatively healthy player, and he's certainly not a stiff. If Portland were to be lucky enough to have him drop in their laps I hope they are prepared to make a big investment in a big man coach to really help him out--even if it's just in an advisory role.

When Portland had quality center play (and by that I really mean a true center who wasn't hobbled) they could hang with some very good teams. Even though Drummond's ceiling is supposed to be through the roof, if he could even turn in a Kendrick Perkins type career I'd be pretty happy with him at 6.

If Portland could somehow come out of this draft with Drummond and Lillard--I have to say, I'd be pretty darn stoked.

oldfishermen wrote:With that said, I believe Drummond is a safer pick @ #6 than most realize. His upside is lower than his hype, but his downside is higher than a bust. He has proven he can play against a high level of competition, sometimes. His first year or two will be rocky and inconsistent, and a possible disappointment to many fans. However, in the long run, I believe he will turn into a serviceable center. He will fill a huge need of the in the paint player next to LMA. Just his rebounding and shot blocking with help the Blazers. Combine this with very few FA center options; he is our pick @ #6.

I generally agree. I think he will at least become a serviceable center.

However, Drummond is an average rebounder (at best). Per40(Pace adjusted), Drummond got 10.8 rebounds/game. For comparison - O'Quinn, 12.7, Zeller 12.4, Nicholson 11.2, Leonard 10.4.

At the PF possition there were several players who are MUCH better rebounders: T.Robinson 14.6, Draymond Green 13.0, Davis 12.9, Henson 12.4, Sullinger 12.0.

oldfishermen wrote:Lillard on the other hand is a very risky pick. His upside is way lower than his hype. His downside is rock bottom. Lillard’s game has more red flags than a Russian Embassy. And these are flaws showing against weak competition. Lillard will be the biggest bust of this draft class, even with the #11 pick.

Below is video of Lillard’s Combine 3 on 3 drills. He did not embarrass himself; however, these were NOT full pressure contract drills either. Besides his poor court vision, one announcer that appears to know his game pointed out two more weaknesses. Lillard is average in the pick and roll game. Also, teams that did defend him well forced him to his right, which lowered his FG to 30%, in the Blue Sky conference. He will be very easy to defend in the NBA.

Fill the PG roster spots with veteran FAs. I would rather make a trade with Charlotte for Augustin than use a pick on Lillard. Augustin is a serviceable safe PG and a much better option than Lillard.

Lillard is NOT a PG. Never has been and never will be. He is a very short SG. Given their skill level & size - I would much rather have Waiters.

Yeah, Drummond scares me but he could certainly be a DeAndre Jordan type of center could he not? You know defense, rebound, block shots and run the court\dunk on the fast break....

I agree tester...You watch Waiters video and see how he absorbs contact and finishes at the rim...that is the NBA right there....and he is also a scoring guard, similiar size to lillard but better frame and better scorer IMO....

Nice post Old Fisherman, I completely agree on Lillard...He is a SG in a PG body and NBA rosters are full of bench combo scoring guards, there just are not a lot of them that have transitioned to starting PG....

We have GOT to get a center. This is why I would be willing to see us take a chance on Drummond. We do not need a PF--unless we think LMA us our center, we have a young all-star PF.

We have GOT to get a point guard too, but unless we think Marshall is the man, we are not going to do that via this draft (though I read an interesting article on Hoopsworld about a guy from a small college who might be a great second round pick. Anyone remember that Terry Porter played center at an NAIA school?)

trade both picks to Orlando for Dwight Howard
hire Steve Nash

Blazers big 3 is a formidable opponent to any team in the league!!!

Heh it would take a lot more than both picks to get Dwight. He is a once in a decade #1 pick, like <cough cough> Oden was supposed to be for us.

The positive and negative reports are hitting in full force on Lillard. Moves and countermoves by teams, agents, interested parties. The one thing I know that I don't know is how to figure out if a scoring guard will be a good fit for the Blazers. Since Lillard's defense is not his strength, I haven't been a fan.

Regardless, I'd prefer someone else (not named Waiters) at 6.
And it's one of Drummond, Beal or Barnes ... and I expect it's Drummond.

PREDICTIONS FOR BLAZERS:

Drummond at 6
Marshall at 11
A third 1st rounder -- Royce White
2nd rounders -- Jae Crowder and Scott Machado

Potential at 6. Floor generals. Forwards who are team players.

I was originally a Lilliard fan, but the more I look at him, the more concerned I am about him becoming another Bayless... too small to play sg and not the point guard we want them to be.

ucatchtrout wrote:I was originally a Lilliard fan, but the more I look at him, the more concerned I am about him becoming another Bayless... too small to play sg and not the point guard we want them to be.

I think all of this is a good point. I am more intrigued by Lillard than I have been up to this point, but I still have plenty of reluctance.

Part of it I think has to come down to the coach. Bayless was never going to be the point guard that Portland really wanted, but I think it was compounded by Nate's unwillingness to bend in his view of what a PG should be. Nate was so infatuated with having a Steve Blake kind of talent out there that he seemed unable and unwilling to accept that a different style of player could also work. Look no further than the much more accomplished Andre Miller struggling under Nate.

I read an interesting article the other day from Hollinger on ESPN Insider called the "2012 draft rater". Using some of the metrics that Hollinger is famous for, he broke down ratings of individual players. What was interesting was that using his metrics, there have been 8 wing players in the last 10 year who have been rated 13 or higher using his metrics. The worst of them was Josh Childress, but of those there were 5 all-stars, Rudy Gay and Kawahi Leonard-not a bad group. I don't recall if he mentioned the all-stars by name, but he did say that Waiters projects as the best small wing since Dwayne Wade. I know it's just a single metric, but that definitely makes you think.

Also of note was that Lillard ranked horribly in that metric. According to Hollinger's metric, he should be a mid-first rounder, while Marshall should be ranked slightly higher.

My wish list.

#6 Drummond
#11 Zeller or Leonard

PF/C rotation of LMA/Drummond/Zeller or Leonard
PF/C reserves Kurt Thomas/Pryzbilla/Craig Smith/Freeland “or” JJ Hickson

SF Royce White by mid first round pick purchased/trade (player? #41 & $3 million)
SF rotation of Batum/White
SF reserves Babbitt/ S. Williams

SG rotation of Mathews/ Elliot Williams (Batum can play some SG minutes when necessary)

#40 Scott Machado
PG sign the best starting caliber FA we can land from the well known list
PG FA, reserves Nolan Smith/Machado

#41, needs to be traded or the Blazers will have too many players on their roster.

If Freeland comes over, only two FAs need to be signed, Batum and the best PG we can get. However, this will make 16 players on the roster. Either Craig Smith or Kurt Thomas or Babbitt or Shawne Williams will need to be added to the trade for the 3rd first round pick

I like your roster, oldfishermen. The only thing I would change, if we could make it happen, is to somehow get a hold of a high enough pick to get T Rob. The more I read about him and the more I see, the more I like him and think he can have a really productive career. I'm all for going big with our lotto picks and then acquiring a PG through trade or FA and filling out the rest of our roster much like you suggested with minor tweaks as necessary to adjust to who is available, etc.

Agree, I also like T. Robinson more than Drummond. I was trying to make a plan using as many options under the Blazer’s control as possible. There are a thousand curves that could be thrown on draft night.

Also, I messed up on Pryzbilla. I believe he is also a FA that needs to be resigned. I like having both Prysbilla and Thomas for one more year. Both players are good insurance and also good mentors to our two new bigs. With picking two bigs in the draft, we can live with only one of them if we need the roster spot.

I think POR should take a big and then a wing scorer, preferably a guy wjo can get his own shot like Waiters, Rivers, maybe Lamb....Beal obviously would fit here as well...and I would not be opposedm if they took Barnes or MKG (moving Batum to SG)...

Drummond is debateable at 36....But I am not convinced that Zeller or Leonard would be a better big than some late 1st\early 2nd guys like O'Quinn or Sims......